Peak starts now.
Not in October. The decisions that determine how your November and December go, carriers, capacity, platform, promises, are being made in the next few weeks. This is the data to make them on, before it’s a last-minute scramble.
THE LENS
Peak 2025 → now → peak 2026
BUILT FOR
Retail logistics teams
BLACK FRIDAY 2026
27 Nov
Why a special edition
Last peak unpacked, what's next?
Every quarter we open our anonymised network data so retailers can benchmark against the market. This edition runs in three acts: a post-mortem of peak 2025, a read on what’s shifting right now in 2026, and a teaser for the peak ahead.
The real power of Unpacked is that it lets retailers plan peak on evidence, not instinct. When you can see how last peak actually behaved and where the trends are already heading, you can predict what’s coming and prepare for it rather than react when the volume hits.
Rory O'Connor
CEO, Scurri
In this edition
Everything you need to plan peak
Six steps, in order. Or jump to what you need.
01 - POST-MORTEM
Peak 2025, unpacked
The shape of peak, the crunch and the delivery mix under load.
02 - WHAT'S CHANGING
The 2026 shift
The overall stats: how demand, destinations and delivery have moved.
03 - DEEP DIVE
Industry explorer
Click any category for its trend, destinations and delivery preference.
05 - PEAK 2026 TRENDS
The outlook for 2026
The calendar and the market view of what's coming.
06 - YOUR MOVE
How ready are you?
Score your readiness and get the prep playbook in one place.
THE SHAPE OF PEAK
Peak was a plateau, not a spike
Q4 2025 volumes grew just +0.4% year on year across our network. Demand didn’t collapse — but it didn’t rescue the quarter either. Black Friday and Cyber Monday grew only +1.8%, and Christmas week was flat at +0.3%.
+0.4%
Q4 2025 volume, YoY
Flat across the network
+1.8%
Black Friday & Cyber Monday
The promotional peak barely moved
+0.3%
Essentially no growth
Month-on-month change, Q4 2025 YoY
YoY volume change by month.
October
-4.8%
November
+4.6%
December
+0.5%
Q4 total
+0.4%
What the shape tells you
01
Volume didn’t rescue the quarter. Q4 grew just 0.4% YoY. Retailers didn’t fail to generate demand, but growth alone wasn’t enough to carry margin.
02
Combined Black Friday and Cyber Monday volume rose just 1.8% as retailers increasingly adopted a “Black Month” approach, spreading promotions across November. Volumes are now spread across the month.
03
Christmas week was flat. At +0.3%, the pre-Christmas rush retailers plan capacity around barely showed up in the numbers.
→ Why it matters now
If you can’t grow your way through peak, margin protection is the only lever left. With volumes essentially flat, the retailers who win 2026 will be the ones managing carrier surcharges, WISMO enquiries, delivery exceptions and returns, not the ones chasing volume that isn’t there.
Peak Delivery Preferences
Speed is the default, but the mix is moving
When volume peaks, the delivery mix shows what shoppers actually expect. Next Day carried more than a third of peak. But compare it with where 2026 preference sits now, and you can see the mix rebalancing toward security and value. Use the toggle.
What the shape tells you
Demand for Next Day delivery is rising, but so is the cost of meeting it. As shoppers increasingly expect fast delivery as standard, retailers face a key decision: absorb the cost to remain competitive or pass it on to customers.
Signature is climbing. Its share has risen into 2026 and it’s now the fastest-growing service (+34% YoY), shoppers want security and proof on higher-value orders.
Two-Day is quietly surging. Lower share, but the fastest growth of any option (+42% YoY), a value-speed middle ground is coming back.
Weekend has cooled. After leading peak 2025 growth, weekend preference has softened (−22% YoY) as shoppers plan earlier.
→ What to carry into peak
The lesson: a fixed carrier mix won’t fit. Speed and security are both rising, while weekend demand is easing. Retailers need the flexibility to balance Next Day, Signature and Two-Day services while reassessing what “standard” delivery means. Can your carrier network consistently deliver on a two- to three-day SLA?
THE 2026 SHIFT
Where the map is redrawing itself
Q4 2025 volume grew just +0.4% year on year, nowhere near the explosive growth of prior years. Halfway through 2026, overall network volume is essentially flat (+0.2%), and where growth remains, it’s moved. Knowing which markets are durable and which are volatile is the difference between a carrier plan that scales and one that strands volume.
With changes to customs duties adding new complexity to cross-border trade, we’ll continue analysing the data to keep our customers informed and ready to respond as the market evolves.
Rose Power
Head of Operations, Scurri
Germany is the one to bank on. It posted double-digit YoY growth at peak (+34.7% in Q4 2025) and again in Q2 2026 (+44.7% YoY). If you’re expanding EU capacity, start here.
North America keeps retreating. The US was down YoY at peak (-31.1% in Q4 2025) and still down YoY in Q2 2026 (-26.0%). The decline hasn’t reversed, even if it’s easing slightly. Model demand risk before over-committing transatlantic.
Domestic demand is softening. UK volumes were down -2.9% YoY in Q2 2026, even as mainland Europe posted strong YoY growth across the board — Switzerland, Belgium, France, the Netherlands and Denmark all in double digits.
INTERACTIVE - INDUSTRY EXPLORER
How each category moved, and what it wants
Peak demand didn’t move evenly, and it’s still shifting. Pick a category to see how it grew at peak 2025, where it sits now in 2026, its dominant delivery preference, and what that means for your plan.
Pet & Animal
Tools & DIY
Sports Equipment
Cosmetics
Toys
Adult
Fashion
Homewares
Food & Drink
Gifting
Motor
The defining trend for peak 2026
Peak success starts with better preparation.
Shoppers expect AI to make their experience faster and smoother, and they expect it during peak specifically. Our research, conducted by Savanta with more than 1,000 UK consumers and published in Scurri’s Future of Delivery Report, Scurri’s latest data, shows where that expectation is sharpest, and where retailers are already turning it into delivery performance.
59%
of UK shoppers expect retailers to use AI during peak
For faster shipping, better stock availability and fewer delays
49%
are open to AI personal shopping assistants
The golden quarter, network-wide
31%
The #1 thing shoppers want AI to improve
46%
Enterprise retailers prioritising AI for both efficiency and customer experience
in the next 12 months
Where AI wins peak
Smarter carrier selection. AI routes each order to the carrier best placed to deliver it on time and on cost, so your delivery promises at checkout are ones you can keep, even at peak.
Proactive, deflected WISMO. With up to 82% of “where is my order” queries absorbed by AI and 40% shifted to social, your support team stays functional on the busiest days.
Demand you can see coming. AI-driven forecasting turns the plateau-and-spike pattern from earlier into a plan, capacity where the volume will actually be.
→ The bottom line
At peak, AI can help make the difference between delighting customers and losing them to delays. AI can help proactively identify at-risk shipments and detect delivery issues before they impact customers. The retailers embedding AI into delivery, not just discovery, are the ones protecting both margin and loyalty.
What shoppers want AI to do
Share of UK shoppers naming each as a priority. Source: Scurri consumer research, 2026.
Order and delivery tracking
39%
Faster delivery times
32%
Real-time notifications
28%
Flexible delivery options
26%
THE PEAK 2026 CALENDAR
Peak is a season. Here's the map.
From summer benchmarking to the January returns wave, the pressure points are predictable.
LATE AUG
Back to School
Electronics and home-tech demand builds. A useful dry run for volume handling.
OCT
Peak surcharges begin
Carrier peak surcharges kick in (DHL: early Oct–mid Jan). Peak is a cost season, not a day.
31 OCT
Halloween
Emerging promo window, watch gaming, costume and wearable surges.
27 NOV
PEAK
Black Friday
What shoppers now expect AI to do, and where it wins peak.
30 NOV
PEAK
Cyber Monday
Final-mile and tracking systems get stress-tested. WISMO climbs.
MID-DEC
PEAK
Last-minute rush
Ultra-fast, secure options spike as gift deadlines close. The crunch day lands here.
26 DEC
Boxing Day
WISMO peaks and the returns wave begins. Reverse logistics must be proactive.
EARLY JAN
Returns peak
What shoppers now expect AI to do, and where it wins peak.
Interactive · Readiness check
How ready is your peak?
Tick what’s already true for your operation. Your score updates live and points you to the gaps worth closing before October.
Get peak-ready with Scurri
Build the delivery setup that wins peak 2026
Book a 30-minute Peak Delivery Audit to pressure-test your carrier setup, tracking visibility and exception handling before peak 2026 arrives.
Get the next Unpacked first
Peak benchmarks, fresh data and prep guides, all delivered as they’re released. Built for retail delivery teams.