Brexit: Where are we now, and why does it matter?

Notes from The Delivery Conference.

Professor Matthew Goodwin from the University of Kent/Chatham House is one of the experts on Brexit and its impact on e-commerce. He’s a well-known, widely published figure in academic areas.  He’s written a brilliant book called national populism.

At the recent Delivery Conference, Prof Matthew shared his thoughts on the current Brexit situation and what might develop over the coming weeks and months.

Why does Brexit matter?

Why does Brexit matter? A lot has been said about how Brexit impacts online commerce. Professor Matthew explained to delegates that events around  Brexit are changing fast. Giving an example of a gambler, Matthew stated four likely outcomes that could be realised with Brexit.

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Image c @gleybourne

The first outcome is ‘no deal’, with a probability of 10% or 5%. Matthew says that it’s likely that the labour party will publicly and loudly commit to a public vote, or include the option of resuming the Brexit deal.

Secondly, a referendum can only be organised within 22 weeks, according to the Constitution Unit at UCL. “If by the end of March, Theresa May has not brokered her deal, or she’s forced to accept that while it has conditional support in Parliament on a second public vote, then a public vote can only be held 22 weeks later.

His last plausible outcome was ‘no deal.”

What does Brexit look like?

Mathew said that the next few weeks will be volatile depending on what will happen down the road. 

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Image c @shdlogistics

Interestingly, said Mathew, a lot of voters haven’t really changed their view on Brexit.

The sentiment is gradually drifting to what can be called ‘regret’, said Mathew, adding that if a referendum is held tomorrow, the poll of polls shows that those who choose to stay would be 54% while those who support Brexit stand at 46% (with an error margin of three and a half point).

If there’s no deal, Mathew said that there’s the likelihood of huge public support for a clean break and not a disruptive break.

Noting that the prospects of Brexit present a volatile future for businesses, Matthew also stated that taxes are also expected to go up as the uncertainty of economic wind sweeps in.

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Author: Alan O’Rourke | Twitter: @alanorourke | Linkedin: Profile

Matthew Goodwin is an academic, a bestselling writer and speaker known for his work on Britain and Europe. He is Professor of Politics at Rutherford College, University of Kent, Senior Visiting Fellow at the Royal Institute of International Affairs, Chatham House. Matthew has consulted more than 200 organisations around the globe, including the UK Prime Minister’s Office, the President of Germany, U.S. State Department and the European Commission.